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SteveM's Swell Forecast for Guapo PaipoPridePalooza 2010

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SteveM has provided annual wave and swell forecasts for prior years' g'Paloozas. He has provided another stupendous forecast  for the
Guapo PaipoPridePalooza - see below... if he ever delivers!

Hurricane Flash Stickers from The Weather Underground Tropical Pages

“Powered by hurricane-tracking software from Stormpulse.com.”

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Dr. Gray's Tropical Meteorology Project makes annual prognostications. See the
annual hurricane prognostication.

GP '10 Wave Forecast by Steve "The Mind" Not feeling good about this one, so not sure if you really want to hear it :) Later, Steve "The Mind" Marshall August 4, 2010, 4:04pm GP '10 Wave Forecast by Dr. Gray - August Update, as Reported on Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.) The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season: 1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009. 2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season. 3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons. 4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray 4 August 2010 GP '10 Wave Forecast by Dr. Klotzbach and Dr. Gray of Colorado State University as Reported on Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 185% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step up from their April forecast, which called for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (51% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (50% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 65% (42% is average.) This is the most aggressive early June forecast ever issued by the CSU group; the previous most aggressive such forecasts were for the 2006 and 2007 seasons, when the CSU team predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Both of these forecasts did poorly, particularly the 2006 forecast, as only 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes were observed. The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season: 1) Weak La Niña conditions should develop by the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August-October). The expected trend towards weak La Niña conditions should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009. 2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season. 3) A weaker-than-normal Azores High prevailed during April-May. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons. 4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80-85 percent of normalized hurricane damage. Analogue years The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak El Niño to neutral conditions, well above-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April - May. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1969, the 3rd worst hurricane season of all time, featuring Category 5 Hurricane Camille which hit Mississippi; 1966, a relatively average year that featured Category 4 Inez that killed 1,000 people in Haiti; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast. Read more here. Dr. Jeff Masters June 02, 2010 GP '10 Wave Forecast by Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes. Read more here. Dr. Jeff Masters June 01, 2010 GP '10 Wave Forecast by NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. This outlook reflects an expected set of conditions that is very conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This expectation is based on the prediction of three climate factors, all of which are conducive historically to increased tropical cyclone activity. These climate factors are: 1) the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995, 2) exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region), and 3) either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely. In addition, dynamical models forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones also predict a very active season. The conditions expected this year have historically produced some very active Atlantic hurricane seasons. The 2010 hurricane season could see activity comparable to a number of extremely active seasons since 1995. If the 2010 activity reaches the upper end of our predicted ranges, it will be one of the most active seasons on record. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:     * 14-23 Named Storms,     * 8-14 Hurricanes     * 3-7 Major Hurricanes     * An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. Hurricane Landfalls: It only takes one storm hitting your area to cause a disaster, regardless of the activity predicted in the seasonal outlook. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. While NOAA does not make an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook, the historical probability for multiple U.S. hurricane strikes, and for multiple hurricane strikes in the region around the Caribbean Sea, increases sharply for exceptionally active (i.e. hyperactive) seasons (ACE > 175% of median). However, predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Therefore, it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season.. Read more here and read the current outlook here. NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook June 01, 2010 GP '10 Wave Forecast by George of the Jungle The tropical Atlantic is heating up faster than it did in 2005 in the main development region. El Niño is done. It looks like it's going to be an intense hurricane season. George e-Mail of May 12, 2010 GP '10 Wave Forecast by Tropical Storm Risk TSR raises its forecast and predicts the 2010 hurricane season will be active with basin activity 60% above the 1950-2009 long-term average. Users should note that the precision of TSR’s April outlook for Atlantic hurricane activity between 1980 and 2009 is fairly low. Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) 9 April 2010 GP '10 Wave Forecast by Dr. Gray We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall. Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray 7 April 2010

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