March 16, 2005.
Despite my near best efforts to extract a favorable surf forecast from
our prima donna GP forecaster, SteveM, for this year's GuidoPalooza
2005, during a March visit to Virginia Beach... my efforts, well...
let's not go there. Steve "The Mind" mind's mind was distracted,
wandering. Despite seeing the pain in his face and his entire body, the
pain of withholding and the sharing of some good news, he just could
not bring himself beyond saying, "we shall have some surf, we will
ride." OK, that' fair enough... just not that 1-2' chop slop, ok???
Having digressed... I think we may have a new, positive attitude forecaster in "G," the Jungle Man, from alt.surfing.
- Rod
|
From the GP listserv
On April 8, Rod was writing:
Looks like
we have room... for now. A non alt.surfing guy and daughter from N.
Oregon may also join us at GP this year. He's a paipo rider that Neal
Carver, I and a few others shared a house with in Manzanita, OR this
past November. Maybe we'll end up with more prone riders than statues
this year!!!
Chris Smith responded:
Rod,
You know what will happen if you have more prone riders than stand up
riders, in a word "FLAT" ;) Bring your logs and the surf will come.
SteveM "The Mind" Speaks, Digresses, Tangentiates:
That's true, Chris.
Just another factor contributing to unfavorable surf conditions this
year. The parallels to the number of factor's Dr. Grey has for
his hurricane forcasts are scary. Hurricane factors are things
such as water temp, surface pressures, high-level winds,
intensity/existence of el nino, etc. While the GP wave forecast factors
are a little less scientific ;-), the amount, and sometimes
accuracy, of them are similar such as: My initial intuition, number of
prone riders vs stand-up riders, extent of crass commercialization of
GP, extent of Rod giving out disinformation regarding his attempts to
bribe and influence my surf forecast, etc.
With the exception of the crass commericalization factor, which seems
to be refreshingly down this year, the other factors aren't looking too
good. My initial insight is that the waves will be below average this
year. Relaying this to Rod kinda ties into the negative
"disinformation" factor. His previous reply about our meeting was
riddled with half-truths and conclusions based on erroneous assumptions.
He thought my negative impression for this year was due to the fact I
thought I might not be able to attend, for good reasons, and it was a
sort of "sour grapes" forecast. The partial truth in that statement was
that my mind was wandering a little at our meeting, and it was for good
news.... I was going to have a new baby (finally born on March 30!),
but that would never cloud my mind regarding a surf forecast. Also, I
don't see it interfering with my ability to attend GP. Even if it did,
I would never let my personal attendance affect a wave forecast, that
would be biased and unethical!! Something Rod doesn't seem to
understand since he also tries to bribe me into a good surf forecast! I
must admit I enjoyed the mexican food and margaritas and thank him for
that, but I can't let it influence my forecast!! In fact, such a
blatant unethical move tends to make it worse. (err, strike that,
I don't want Rod to think future attempts at a bribe would hurt the
forecast..... You can buy as many dinners and drinks as ya want!)
Back to the forecast factors: The prone to statue ratio may be higher
than normal as Rod already mentioned, so a definite negative impact on
the wave forecast.
Final (?) analysis: Wave forecast doesn't look good this year.... Bring your longboards cuz it's gonna be waist-high at best.
There's still hope though!! Even though I try to keep my
religious leanings to myself unless provoked, desperate times call for
desperate measures.... As Rod himself said, we can always "PRAY FOR
SURF!" It is only through this that my initial forecast can be
changed. But then again, the Tin Can's answer might turn out to
be, "NO." Doesn't hurt to try though.
Later,
Steve
May 13, 2005. PaipoJim Weighs In With a Response and Forecast
--- In guidopalooza, "Chris Smith" <somec1982@h...> wrote:
> You know what will happen if you have more prone riders than stand
> up riders, in a word "FLAT" ;) Bring your logs and the surf will
> come.
and...
--- Steve <steve.marsh@v...> wrote:
>
> Back to the forecast factors: The prone to statue ratio may be
> higher than normal as Rod already mentioned, so a definite negative
> impact on the wave forecast.
Fear not! There *wiil* be good surf @GP2K5. My reasoning is
threefold:
1) Ali is NOT a prone rider. This should help keep any dreaded ratios
in neutral territory. Go here for evidentiary pics:
http://www.nehalem.net/cor0028.JPG
http://www.nehalem.net/003crop.JPG
2) The updated forecast by none other than the esteemed Dr. William
Gray calls for a *higher* than average probability of named storms
in the Atlantic this year!
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/
3) And most importantly of all... I *AM* the wave magnet! In thirty
years of sporadic vacationing in September to breaks noted for their
exposure to hurricane and tropical storm swells, I am batting around
.800 in succesfully encountering just such waves...
including, but not limited to, hurricane Iniki which generated huge
Poipu Beach surf the day before it hit with decent North Shore waves
for 4 or 5 days afterwards (I was "evacuated" from Kuai to the Turtle
Bay Hilton",) and hurricane David which provided two great days of
gorgeous sunny weather and clean **overhead** set waves just north of
Frisco Pier the last time I was at Cape Hatteras back in 1979.
I am still going to "Pray for Surf" though, just to hedge my bets.
:-)
SteveM Provides His Latest Update While Tangentiating on alt.surfing in the Thread, "What the heck is this topic, and who is this Lydon chick? Does she surf?"
Aug 16, 2005
(digressing about TS Irene) ...I'll take whatever I can get. The waves
were enough to put me on the manic instead of depressive side of my
self-diagnosed bipolar condition.
By the way, having all preconceived notions and alternating bribes vs.
counter bribes taken into consideration, the updated, non-biased
forecast for this year's GP is: Chest-high waves at peak with a
few higher, but mostly waist as average. Conditions will range
from moderate chop to something cleaner with a slight bump to it.
Later,
Steve
|