SteveM's Swell Forecast for GuidoPalooza 2005

SteveM provides annual wave and swell forecasts for the GuidoPalooza.  As always,
GPers are squirming restlessly awaiting this year's forecast... Wait a second, he's
been fired for blasphemizing the GP!!!  The forecast BOG follows:.

March 16, 2005. Despite my near best efforts to extract a favorable surf forecast from our prima donna GP forecaster, SteveM, for this year's GuidoPalooza 2005, during a March visit to Virginia Beach... my efforts, well... let's not go there. Steve "The Mind" mind's mind was distracted, wandering. Despite seeing the pain in his face and his entire body, the pain of withholding and the sharing of some good news, he just could not bring himself beyond saying, "we shall have some surf, we will ride." OK, that' fair enough... just not that 1-2' chop slop, ok???

Having digressed... I think we may have a new, positive attitude forecaster in "G," the Jungle Man, from alt.surfing.
- Rod

March 24, 2005, on alt.surfing. Enjoy. I am forecasting a bumper crop of Atlantic tropical cyclones this year so get ready. The equatorial Atlantic is well above normal temp now and the Carribean is warming fast. The serious action will begin in August and who knows about July?
- george of the jungle

From the GP listserv
On April 8, Rod was writing:
Looks like we have room... for now. A non alt.surfing guy and daughter from N. Oregon may also join us at GP this year. He's a paipo rider that Neal Carver, I and a few others shared a house with in Manzanita, OR this past November. Maybe we'll end up with more prone riders than statues this year!!!

Chris Smith responded:
Rod,

You know what will happen if you have more prone riders than stand up
riders, in a word "FLAT" ;)  Bring your logs and the surf will come.

SteveM "The Mind" Speaks, Digresses, Tangentiates:
That's true, Chris. Just another factor contributing to unfavorable surf conditions this year.  The parallels to the number of factor's Dr. Grey has for his hurricane forcasts are scary.  Hurricane factors are things such as water temp, surface pressures, high-level winds, intensity/existence of el nino, etc. While the GP wave forecast factors are a little less scientific ;-), the amount, and sometimes
accuracy, of them are similar such as: My initial intuition, number of prone riders vs stand-up riders, extent of crass commercialization of GP, extent of Rod giving out disinformation regarding his attempts to bribe and influence my surf forecast, etc.

With the exception of the crass commericalization factor, which seems to be refreshingly down this year, the other factors aren't looking too good. My initial insight is that the waves will be below average this year. Relaying this to Rod kinda ties into the negative "disinformation" factor. His previous reply about our meeting was riddled with half-truths and conclusions based on erroneous assumptions.

He thought my negative impression for this year was due to the fact I thought I might not be able to attend, for good reasons, and it was a sort of "sour grapes" forecast. The partial truth in that statement was that my mind was wandering a little at our meeting, and it was for good news.... I was going to have a new baby (finally born on March 30!), but that would never cloud my mind regarding a surf forecast. Also, I don't see it interfering with my ability to attend GP. Even if it did, I would never let my personal attendance affect a wave forecast, that would be biased and unethical!! Something Rod doesn't seem to understand since he also tries to bribe me into a good surf forecast! I must admit I enjoyed the mexican food and margaritas and thank him for that, but I can't let it influence my forecast!! In fact, such a blatant unethical move tends to make it worse.  (err, strike that, I don't want Rod to think future attempts at a bribe would hurt the forecast..... You can buy as many dinners and drinks as ya want!)

Back to the forecast factors: The prone to statue ratio may be higher than normal as Rod already mentioned, so a definite negative impact on the wave forecast.

Final (?) analysis: Wave forecast doesn't look good this year.... Bring your longboards cuz it's gonna be waist-high at best.

There's still hope though!!  Even though I try to keep my religious leanings to myself unless provoked, desperate times call for desperate measures.... As Rod himself said, we can always "PRAY FOR SURF!" It is only through this that my initial forecast can be changed.  But then again, the Tin Can's answer might turn out to be, "NO." Doesn't hurt to try though.

Later,
Steve


May 13, 2005. PaipoJim Weighs In With a Response and Forecast
--- In guidopalooza, "Chris Smith" <somec1982@h...> wrote:

> You know what will happen if you have more prone riders than stand
> up riders, in a word "FLAT" ;)  Bring your logs and the surf will
> come.

and...

--- Steve <steve.marsh@v...> wrote:
>
> Back to the forecast factors:  The prone to statue ratio may be
> higher than normal as Rod already mentioned, so a definite negative
> impact on the wave forecast.

Fear not!  There *wiil* be good surf @GP2K5.  My reasoning is
threefold:

1) Ali is NOT a prone rider.  This should help keep any dreaded ratios
   in neutral territory.  Go here for evidentiary pics:

  http://www.nehalem.net/cor0028.JPG

  http://www.nehalem.net/003crop.JPG

2) The updated forecast by none other than the esteemed Dr. William
   Gray calls for a *higher* than average probability of named storms
   in the Atlantic this year!

  http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/

3) And most importantly of all...  I *AM* the wave magnet!  In thirty
years of sporadic vacationing in September to breaks noted for their
exposure to hurricane and tropical storm swells, I am batting around
.800 in succesfully encountering just such waves...

including, but not limited to, hurricane Iniki which generated huge
Poipu Beach surf the day before it hit with decent North Shore waves
for 4 or 5 days afterwards (I was "evacuated" from Kuai to the Turtle
Bay Hilton",) and hurricane David which provided two great days of
gorgeous sunny weather and clean **overhead** set waves just north of
Frisco Pier the last time I was at Cape Hatteras back in 1979.

I am still going to "Pray for Surf" though, just to hedge my bets.
:-)


SteveM Provides His Latest Update While Tangentiating on alt.surfing in the  Thread, "What the heck is this topic, and who is this Lydon chick? Does she surf?"
Aug 16, 2005


(digressing about TS Irene) ...I'll take whatever I can get. The waves were enough to put me on the manic instead of depressive side of my self-diagnosed bipolar condition.

By the way, having all preconceived notions and alternating bribes vs. counter bribes taken into consideration, the updated, non-biased forecast for this year's GP is:  Chest-high waves at peak with a few higher, but mostly waist as average.  Conditions will range from moderate chop to something cleaner with a slight bump to it.

Later,
Steve