SteveM's Swell Forecast for GuidoPalooza 2004

SteveM provided annual wave and swell forecasts for the GuidoPalooza.
GPers are standing by restlessly awaiting this year's forecast... Wait a second,
he's been fired for blasphemizing the GP!!!  The forecast BOG follows:.

Dateline August 29, 2004 (GMT). Yes.  I believe it's time.  WAY too many factors this year (most of them introduced by *human* intervention) to discuss the detailed influence of each and the reasoning for the final prediction, so I'll spare the full dissertation discourse, and stick to the highlights.

If GP isn't cancelled or postponed cuz Hatteras is still picking up the pieces after Frances, we are still stuck with an *average* waist-high swell.  Most systems will be gone or very distant by GP, but there'll be enough residual churning of the water from all the previous, and distant (at the time of GP) storms that I will guarantee "rideable" surf, mainly in the waist-high range.

More detailed prediction is that there will be a steady increase in wave height throughout the week, with the best chance for better than waist-high wavage towards the end of the week. Bad news for the weekend-onlyers.

Later,
Steve


Dateline August 11, 2004. The prediction's gonna have to wait cuz I still
haven't gotten a clear word about this year yet. Granted the recent conga line....most projected to go right over my house....is a good sign, but the season could turn back off just as quickly as it turned on from a relatively long lull.

I'm tellin' ya, the feelings right now are that it's gonna be waist high at best, but then again, I've always only guaranteed *rideable* waves.  I guess that means if ya got a longboard, bring it.  I don't have a longboard.  But wait!  Maybe I can get someone to donate one to me?!!

Another reason I'm thinking of going to the 'Banks tomorrow (in addition to the meteor shower...although it looks like the clouds might roll in earlier than
expected.... and the chance for surf) is to get a better "read" on what GP might be like.

I was figuring this year's prediction was getting to be kinda late (But ofcourse, it *wouldn't* have been late if *some people* didn't bring upon a rescinding of one of the earliest ever made!), but in reviewing previous predictions, I realized one
was as late as the ECSC on August 28.  Soooo, I guess I still have some time to get a clearer picture of this year's prediction (ECSC conditions may have to be another variable to wait for), but it will be made no later than the end of the month.

Then again, some kick-backs from a rumored collection for a board, or maybe even a board itself, could *always* speed up and improve the prediction!  Ya know??

Later,
Steve 

Part 2 (with tangentiation):  For the ascii impared, I guess I should make it clear that I've only been jokin' on Todd.  I've met and talked with him, albeit only briefly, but I think I can vouch for his credibility.  It's a good and noble cause he's goin' for, but I guess I'm jokin him cuz it seems like there should be a better and easier way to get a board for the guy.

Now, as for that *Rod* guy....I'm still not too sure about him; He always seems to be asking money for something....Probably to finance all his bribes!! 


Dateline July 7, 2004. When in the Course of recent AS events, it becomes necessary for one person to dissolve the apparently more corporate than ever bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the following statement:

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all surfers are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of wonderful wavage.

  • That to secure these rights, nothing is instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the Creator,
  • That whenever any Form of coroporate behavior becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the surfers to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new declaration, laying its foundation on such principles as that there should be no principles or blatant commercialization which would seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness in their pursuit of just simply surfing.  Prudence, indeed, will dictate that traditions such as GP, long established (er...ok, maybe it's only been 5 or 6 years, but...), should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which unconscionable rules and blantant advertisments for an originally soulful gathering are made. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such rules and regulations, and to provide new Guards for their future security. 
  • Such has been the patient sufferance of these original GPers; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of house reservations.

  •  

     
     
     

    The history of the present Kings of GP [The infamous III] is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these surfers. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

    <ah, the facts have previously been documented in Google somewhere,
    but I don't have the patience to look for them>

    We, therefore, the Representatives of the surfers everywhere, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by the Authority of the good People of these surfers, solemnly publish and declare, That these United, yet independent, surfers are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent surfers; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to GP corporation, and that all surfable connection between them and the State of the Infamous III, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent surfers, they have full Power to levy wave riding, conclude a kick out, contract colliform
    infections, establish brotherhood, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent Surfers may of right do whenever they feel like it. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor, and the next wave (as long as we get the first one first).

    Be it further resolved that until such blatant infractions of the original cause and purpose of GP is corrected, the wave prediction for this year's GP, which was attempted to be extracted under false pretenses (as well as possible bribes), is hereby rescinded.

    Later,
    Steve

    Subject: GP Wave Prediction Rescinded
    Date: 2004-07-08 02:03:46 PST
    Newsgroups: alt.surfing


    Preliminary February Forecast for GP 2004 (...or Rod drives to Virginia Beach, bribes SteveM, harrasses him endlessly...):

    Rod comes in to town and calls me up and says something about maybe checking the surf and having a brew or two. The surf was unimpressive, so we decide for option 2 after Rod finishes dinner with his work crew.

    I take him to one of my local places that usually serves as my homebase for downing a few beers and then venturing out to check out some other spots.  So, here I am having images of us going around, ruling the bars, kickn butt in foosball, gettin' in some brawls, and admiring some fine wimmin.

    Instead, Rod's drinkin' kinda slow, saying he's toast from working all day, and mumbling something about me having to teach in the morning. (I guess that last part's true, and I should thank him for keepn me on track, but I'm ALWAYS ready to put aside professionalism once in awhile if it involves visiting guests.)

    Anyway, so Rod's kinda chillin', and finally he let's it out: "I mainly called you to see if we could get the scoop on the forecast for the GP this year."

    That's it??  The dude was just using me?!  I felt so cheap.  Not only that, but then he adds a little bribery: He might pay for my beverages *if* I give the forecast. The nerve!  I inform him that these things can't be rushed; they just kinda come to me when the time is right. Rod reluctantly accepts the answer and we decide to leave. Despite the refusal to give a forecast, Rod still decides
    to pay for my beers....maybe a last ditch effort to bribe me.

    As we're walking back to the car, Rod mentions again about how I wouldn't budge on the forecast. Well, I finally 'fessed up and said that while I haven't gotten the full word yet, I have sensed some preliminary feelings about the wavage at GP this year.  This preliminary stuff gets me thinking: If Dr. Grey can have his multiple forecasts for hurricanes that are later tweaked as more info comes in, then I should be able to do the same thing, dammit!

    So that's the way it's gonna be:  My preliminary February forecast for this years GP is wavage that is waist-to-chest high, more often in the chest-high range, and clean.  Realize, however, that this is not final.  Just as Dr. Grey revises his forecasts based on new data, I will do the same.  This year is going to be even more sketchy because of the large part that the intangible factors are going to play this year.  What are those intangibles?

    The intangibles are: 1) the fact that I was USED and practically COERCED into making a forecast before I was ready (we all know what happened *last* time there was a pre-emptive strike, don't we?), and 2) the attempted bribery. These are both acting to muck up the usual clear sense that I get for what the waves are going to be like.

    So there ya have it...It was a freakin' great visit from Rod. Well, at least I *did* win those foosball games!

    <insert smiley face here>

    Later,
    Steve
     

    Subject: Re: The Mind Rips Elvis
    Date: Sat, 21 Feb 2004 04:49:46 GMT

    Newsgroups: alt.surfing


    From: Steve M
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